By Krzysztof Iwanek – The Diplomat – 28 March 2022
If there were to be an India-China conflict, would we see them engage in economic warfare, as now seen between the West and Russia? As I am writing this, in the midst of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, we can see how easily trade can be used as a political weapon in case of war. In areas where the West could block exports of significant goods to Russia, such as semiconductors, as a stern reply to Moscow, it did so. But in areas in which it was the West, including European countries, that are dependent on crucial imports from Russia – such as oil and gas – Russia so far has largely failed to block them. In simpler words: a steep politicization and weaponization of trade clearly shows who is strategically dependent on whom, and in what areas.
In the case of a hypothetical China-India conflict, can we expect a similar trade war? So far, what commentators have usually considered is the possibility of India reducing imports from China as a form of economic revenge for military tussles. What we should focus on, instead, is the reverse.
While China-India trade is too massive and complex to be fully described here, there are a few general conclusions available regarding New Delhi’s predicament.